Cryptocurrency and blockchain-based assets are poised to become a significant segment of global finance by the early 2030s. This research examines base-case projections for the global cryptoasset market and tokenised real-world assets through 2030–2035, drawing on forecasts from major banks, consultancies, multilaterals, and crypto industry analysts. We contextualise an expected multi-trillion-dollar expansion of digital assets against traditional markets, discuss the growth of tokenisation (placing real-world assets on blockchain rails), and assess the trajectory of decentralized finance (DeFi). We also review stablecoin and central bank digital currency (CBDC) outlooks, the state of institutional adoption and regulation, emerging themes for 2030–2035, key risk factors, and scenario analysis (base-case, bullish, and bearish). By synthesising these perspectives, we aim to provide finance professionals, policy makers, and economists with a structured outlook on how blockchain-based finance might integrate with- and transform- traditional financial systems over the next decade.
Crypto Market Capitalisation by 2030: Base-Case Outlook
Leading forecasts anticipate that the total market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies will approach $10–12 trillion by 2030, a roughly tenfold increase from mid-2020s levels. For context, such a valuation would make crypto equivalent to about 8–10% of the current global equity market – a substantial share for a single emergent asset class. This base-case range is grounded in growing adoption and maturing infrastructure: as of 2025, crypto markets stand near $1–1.5 trillion, suggesting that an order-of-magnitude expansion is plausible with broader institutional participation and mainstream use cases. For example, Standard Chartered analysts have posited that Bitcoin alone could reach prices implying a multi-trillion market cap by the late 2020s (they famously set a long-term BTC target of $500k by 2028) . While such bullish single-asset targets are not universally accepted, many large financial institutions now include a $10T+ total crypto market in their 2030 base-case scenarios . At $10–12 trillion, the crypto asset class would rival the market size of gold or European equities, underscoring its potential to become a significant component of global portfolios.
Several factors underpin this projected growth. First is increased institutional allocation: surveys indicate growing acceptance of crypto as an investable asset (discussed further in a later section) and product development like spot Bitcoin ETFs improving access for large investors. Second, technological maturation and scaling (e.g. Ethereum’s upgrades and Layer-2 networks) are expected to support many more users and transactions at lower cost, making crypto networks viable for mainstream financial applications. Third, macro-economic drivers (such as demand for inflation hedges or non-sovereign assets) and demographic trends (millennials inheriting wealth and embracing digital assets) are cited as tailwinds . Notably, crypto’s projected $10T+ market cap by 2030 would still be a single-digit percentage of global financial assets, suggesting room to grow without needing implausible penetration rates – for instance, $12T would be roughly 10% of global stock market value and 1–2% of global wealth, aligning with a diversified asset allocation rather than wholesale replacement of traditional assets.
Tokenised Real-World Assets: Growth Projections
Tokenisation of real-world assets (RWAs) – representing financial or physical assets as blockchain tokens – is forecast to scale dramatically by the 2030s, unlocking new liquidity and efficiency in traditional markets. In fact, some analyses suggest the tokenised assets market could reach tens of trillions of dollars within a decade. Standard Chartered, in a June 2024 paper with Synpulse, projects that demand for tokenised real-world assets could reach $30.1 trillion by 2034 . This eye-opening figure reflects a belief that a meaningful share of equities, bonds, commodities, real estate, trade finance, and other instruments will be issued and transacted on-chain by the mid-2030s. For example, tokenisation is seen as particularly transformative for trade finance: Standard Chartered estimates tokenised trade finance could comprise ~16% of the overall tokenised asset market by 2034 , helping bridge a $2.5 trillion trade finance gap by attracting new investors with improved transparency and efficiency. Already, tokenised U.S. Treasury and money market fund tokens have emerged (over $1 billion of tokenised Treasuries were live by Q1 2024) , hinting at the vast addressable market as larger asset classes come on-chain.
Other prominent projections, while more conservative than Standard Chartered’s, still foresee multi-trillion dollar tokenisation by 2030. McKinsey & Co. suggests tokenisation adoption will occur in waves, with an initial focus on easier use cases (funds, bonds, loans) and later expansion to more complex assets. McKinsey’s base-case analysis expects around $2 trillion in tokenised market cap by 2030 (excluding cryptocurrencies and stablecoins), with a bullish scenario of up to $4 trillion . This implies roughly an 80× increase from the estimated ~$5 billion in non-crypto tokenised assets in early 2024 . McKinsey acknowledges its outlook is “less optimistic than previously published estimates” – indeed, some analysts had floated $4–5 trillion by 2030 as a likely range . The World Economic Forum (WEF) provided an even bolder early prediction: in 2015, a WEF survey of experts predicted that 10% of world GDP would be stored on blockchain by 2027 (equating to roughly $8–10 trillion of value on-chain). While that timeline appears aggressive in hindsight – tokenised value still measures in the low trillions – it underscores expectations that blockchain could become a universal settlement layer for a sizable share of global economic output. By 2030, if even a single-digit percentage of stocks, bonds, or real estate value is represented on-chain, the tokenised market could easily reach mid-single-digit trillions (as the McKinsey and Citi estimates suggest) . And by the early 2030s, growth might accelerate further as network effects set in. Larry Fink of BlackRock went so far as to say “the next generation for markets, the next generation for securities, will be tokenisation of securities”, envisioning every stock and bond on a blockchain ledger .
Drivers behind this tokenisation boom include efficiency gains (24/7 trading, instant settlement, automated compliance via smart contracts) and broader access to asset classes. For instance, private market assets (like venture capital or real estate) can be fractionalised into tokens, broadening the investor base and unlocking illiquidity discounts. Citi analysts argue tokenisation could be the “killer use-case” that brings blockchain to billions of users, noting private market tokenisation alone is expected to grow ~80× by 2030 to about $4 trillion . Standard Chartered similarly notes that today’s tokenisation is in “infancy” (just $5 billion excluding stablecoins) , but increasing digitisation of finance and supportive regulation could rapidly scale supply. Early exemplars – such as tokenised mutual funds and bond issuances by major asset managers – are already demonstrating feasibility . By 2030, we may routinely see government bonds, blue-chip equities, and real estate investment trusts (REITs) issued as tokens on regulated public ledgers. Even McKinsey’s cautious case foresees $1 trillion+ in tokenised assets by 2030 (pessimistic scenario) , while the optimistic cases ($4T by 2030, $30T by 2035) illustrate the transformative upside if legal and technical hurdles are overcome.
The Trajectory of Decentralized Finance (DeFi)
Decentralized finance – blockchain-based financial services like lending, trading, and derivatives without traditional intermediaries – has evolved from near-zero to tens of billions in total value locked (TVL) over the past few years. Looking ahead to 2030, projections for DeFi’s scale diverge widely, reflecting uncertainty about adoption and regulatory acceptance. Conservative estimates place DeFi TVL in the range of $87–$230 billion by 2030, essentially assuming only moderate growth from current levels. For instance, one market research forecast expects the DeFi market (measured in platform revenues or locked value) to be on the order of $232 billion by 2030 – implying DeFi remains a niche, albeit growing, segment of finance. Such caution is not unfounded: after surging above $180 billion in late 2021, DeFi TVL retrenched to under $50 billion during the 2022 market downturn . Basel regulators and central banks often note that DeFi, in its current form, is small relative to traditional banking and faces hurdles around scalability, compliance, and security.
However, more optimistic analyses see DeFi expanding by an order of magnitude or more. A widely cited bullish scenario from VanEck forecasts that Ethereum’s Layer-2 networks alone (which host many DeFi protocols) could reach $1 trillion in market cap by 2030 . This implies a massive increase in usage of smart contract platforms for financial activity, as VanEck expects Layer-2 scaling solutions to overcome Ethereum’s throughput constraints and capture value from user growth. Similarly, Messari (a leading crypto research firm) has envisioned a “$30 trillion scenario” for crypto by 2030 – effectively a hyper-bull case where DeFi, Web3, and tokenised assets see widespread adoption across the globe. In Messari’s view, if blockchain technology underpins a large share of financial transactions (including real-world assets moving on-chain), the combined value flowing through DeFi protocols and on-chain contracts could reach tens of trillions . Under such a scenario, DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL) could exceed $10 trillion by the 2030s, rivaling the assets under management of major banks. This would require not only retail crypto adoption but also significant institutional use of DeFi (e.g. banks trading on decentralized exchanges, enterprises borrowing via decentralized money markets, etc.), enabled by clarity in regulation and technology that allows compliance.
In the base case, many analysts expect DeFi to land somewhere between these extremes. A plausible base trajectory is $1–2 trillion in DeFi TVL by 2030, which would be roughly 10–20% of the overall crypto market cap. That range assumes DeFi grows to become a meaningful niche in global finance (comparable to, say, the size of the hedge fund industry) but not a dominant channel. It reflects continued growth in stablecoin-based lending, decentralized exchanges (DEXs) capturing a share of trading volumes, and novel on-chain financial products. Crucially, DeFi’s revenue and incentive models are also expected to evolve. Today, many protocols earn income through trading fees, interest spreads, or liquidation fees, which are then shared with liquidity providers or token holders. By 2030, new models like “restaking” and yield-bearing governance tokens could supplement fee revenue. Restaking involves re-using staked assets (e.g. staked ETH) to secure multiple protocols or services, earning additional yield on the same collateral – potentially making DeFi platforms more capital-efficient. This concept (pioneered by projects like EigenLayer) suggests that staked assets can be leveraged to provide security or services across an ecosystem, turning base protocol staking yields into a form of “crypto dividend” for DeFi. Meanwhile, the rise of liquid staking tokens and yield aggregators indicates that users increasingly seek stacked yields (earning base yield plus extra incentives). By 2030, one can imagine major DeFi protocols functioning akin to digital asset banks, where depositors earn a composite yield from multiple revenue streams – transaction fees, staking rewards, and protocol incentive tokens. This transition from pure fee-driven models to “yield-bearing” DeFi tokens could also influence valuations: investors may value DeFi platforms based on cashflow (fees) plus the intrinsic yield of their native tokens (as many protocols redirect a portion of revenues to token buy-backs or rewards). In summary, DeFi is likely to grow significantly by 2030, but whether it settles at a few hundred billion or several trillion in scale will depend on the degree of TradFi integration, regulatory hurdles, and continued innovation in making decentralized markets efficient and secure.
Stablecoins and CBDCs: 2030 Forecasts
Stablecoins – privately issued digital tokens pegged to fiat currencies – and CBDCs – digital currencies issued by central banks – form the bridge between crypto and traditional money. By 2030, these forms of digital cash are expected to be widespread, with aggregate volumes in the trillions of dollars. Citi Global Perspectives & Solutions (GPS) released a comprehensive report forecasting that the stablecoin market cap could reach $1.6 trillion by 2030 in a base-case scenario, and up to $3.7 trillion in a bullish scenario . (For reference, stablecoin supply in early 2023 was around $150–200 billion, so Citi’s projection implies roughly a 10× to 20× increase.) Citi also cautions that in a bear case – if adoption stalls due to regulatory or technical challenges – stablecoin supply might end up closer to $500 billion . Under the base case (≈$1.6 T), stablecoins would account for a substantial portion of the crypto market and would likely be used far beyond crypto trading – in mainstream payments, remittances, and as liquidity in traditional finance. Indeed, Citi envisions stablecoins “finding roles beyond crypto in the mainstream economy”, especially if regulatory clarity enables broader integration into payment networks . They note that regulatory support (e.g. clear stablecoin laws, bank issuance of stablecoins) is a key assumption for hitting the trillion+ range . Notably, Citi expects dollar-pegged stablecoins to remain dominant (potentially ~90% USD-backed by 2030) , reinforcing the U.S. dollar’s reach but in new digital form.
In parallel, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are projected to grow into a major component of money in circulation by 2030. Citi’s analysts estimated that by 2030 as much as $5 trillion of global fiat currency could exist in digital form via CBDCs . That figure (roughly 5% of broad money supply) represents large central banks rolling out digital versions of their currencies for retail and/or wholesale use. In fact, by mid-2020s many major central banks (EU, China, India, etc.) have CBDC pilots or development programs underway. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) 2022 survey found that 93% of central banks are exploring CBDCs, and by end of this decade up to 24 central banks are likely to have launched digital currencies in some form . Most of these are expected to be retail CBDCs (for general public use), with a smaller number of wholesale CBDCs for interbank settlements . Early live examples – Nigeria’s eNaira, The Bahamas’ Sand Dollar, China’s ongoing digital yuan trials – will likely be joined by digital euro, digital rupee, and others by late 2020s. The IMF has similarly noted that the emergence of foreign currency stablecoins has accelerated central banks’ efforts to not be left behind . By 2030, consumers in multiple large economies may routinely use central-bank-issued digital cash via mobile apps or cards, sometimes without even realising the blockchain or distributed ledger underpinnings. Citi’s $5 trillion figure, importantly, includes both traditional ledger and DLT-based CBDCs – they estimate roughly half of CBDC value might be on distributed ledgers by 2030 , reflecting that some central banks may opt for blockchain-inspired architectures while others use centralised systems.
The rise of stablecoins, in particular, is not without potential side-effects on traditional markets. Bank of America has warned that large-scale stablecoin adoption could have nontrivial impacts on the short-term U.S. Treasury market and bank funding. Because stablecoins (especially those aiming for regulatory approval) are typically backed one-for-one by safe liquid assets like Treasury bills (T-bills), increased stablecoin issuance translates to increased demand for T-bills. BofA analysts noted in 2025 that “for each $1 that leaves traditional banks in favor of stablecoins, there will be $0.90 of incremental demand for U.S. Treasuries” . In other words, if businesses and consumers shift billions of deposits into stablecoins, stablecoin issuers will purchase an equivalent amount of T-bills to back those coins – potentially siphoning liquidity from bank deposits to money markets. With the U.S. T-bill market roughly $5–7 trillion in size, a multi-trillion stablecoin float could become one of the largest holders of T-bills, even rivaling foreign central banks. BofA cautioned that this dynamic “could stir up price swings in the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market” if not managed, possibly steepening the yield curve if heightened T-bill demand coincides with increased government issuance . Another angle is the impact on banks: widespread stablecoin use may reduce bank deposit bases (affecting bank lending capacity) and concentrate liquidity in money market funds or treasury holdings. These considerations underscore why regulators (in the U.S., EU, etc.) are crafting stablecoin-specific rules – to ensure robust reserves and to monitor any macro-financial implications. On the positive side, well-regulated stablecoins could enhance payment efficiency and financial inclusion (e.g. cheaper cross-border remittances, 24/7 settlement), especially in countries with less developed banking. The key will be balancing innovation with safeguards to avoid destabilising traditional markets.
Institutional Adoption and Regulatory Outlook
The trajectory for 2030 hinges heavily on institutional adoption of crypto and clarity in regulation. On both fronts, recent data indicate progress. According to PwC’s 2024 Global Crypto Hedge Fund Report, nearly half of traditional hedge funds (47%) reported exposure to digital assets in 2024, a sharp increase from 29% in 2023 . This means that a significant share of hedge fund managers – who collectively oversee trillions in traditional assets – are now dabbling in crypto strategies. Many are starting small (the exposure is often under 5% of AUM) but the trend is toward increasing allocations: one-third of those with crypto exposure planned to deploy more capital into the space by end-2024 . Catalysts cited include greater regulatory clarity and the launch of crypto investment vehicles like ETFs . For instance, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in some jurisdictions and the expansion of regulated custody services have given institutional investors more confidence to enter. Even among those hedge funds not yet in crypto, nearly 43% reported rising interest from their clients in digital assets . Surveys by Goldman Sachs and others similarly show high-net-worth and family office investors increasingly asking for crypto exposure as part of diversification. By 2030, it’s expected that many asset managers, pension funds, and corporate treasuries will have some allocation to crypto or use tokenised financial products, provided the regulatory environment is supportive.
On the retail side, adoption has also broadened. A 2025 global consumer survey by Gemini found that crypto ownership rose in all regions despite the 2022 bear market. In major economies like the UK, 24% of adults reported owning cryptocurrency in 2025 (up from 18% in 2024) . Singapore led with 28% ownership, and the U.S. saw roughly 20%+ of adults as crypto holders . These figures suggest that nearly one in four individuals in many countries may own crypto by mid-decade, versus well under 10% just a few years prior. The profile of owners is also shifting beyond young tech-savvy males to a more balanced demographic, as evidenced by Gemini’s and others’ data. Increasing retail familiarity creates political impetus for clearer regulations (since millions of voters are now affected by crypto policy), and it attracts traditional consumer-facing companies into the fold (e.g. PayPal launching stablecoins, Visa integrating USDC payments, etc.).
Regulation, meanwhile, is gradually catching up. By 2025, the EU will implement MiCA (Markets in Crypto Assets), one of the world’s first comprehensive crypto regulatory frameworks, providing legal certainty for issuers and service providers in 27 countries. Other jurisdictions like the UK, Singapore, UAE, and Japan have also crafted tailored rules for crypto exchanges, stablecoin reserve requirements, and even DeFi oversight sandboxes. In the U.S., although regulatory progress was slower due to debates in Congress and agency turf wars, there is momentum toward defining digital asset commodities vs securities and allowing bank involvement in stablecoins under federal supervision. Many analysts predict that by 2026–2027, most major jurisdictions will have clear crypto regulations or legislation in place, creating a more unified and safe operating environment. This expected “regulatory clarity by 2027” is critical to the base-case projections: for example, PwC’s survey found that increased clarity was a top reason traditional funds got more comfortable investing . We are already seeing that where regulations are clarified, institutional participation follows – e.g. Hong Kong’s licensing of crypto trading for banks, or Germany allowing spezialfonds to hold crypto. By 2030, one can imagine global regulatory standards (perhaps via the FSB or BIS) mitigating fragmentation, so that a crypto asset or tokenised security approved in one major financial hub can be more easily accepted in another (much as banking standards like Basel III harmonise rules). However, if regulatory approaches remain fragmented or hostile in key economies, it could constrain growth – this is addressed in the Risk Factors section.
In summary, the trend is toward integration of crypto with traditional finance (TradFi). Institutional adoption is rising in tandem with the maturation of market infrastructure (custody, insurance, prime brokerage for crypto) and regulatory normalization. By 2030, we expect:
• Hedge funds and asset managers routinely including crypto or tokenised assets in portfolios (PwC data suggests the majority will have some allocation) .
• Banks and fintechs offering crypto services, from custody to trading, under clear regulatory frameworks – for example, many banks may run stablecoin payment systems or facilitate tokenised bond issuances.
• Consumer adoption continuing to grow, especially as user-friendly interfaces and safer products (like stablecoins from reputable institutions) become common. Surveys by 2030 may show a third or more of adults in several countries use some form of crypto or CBDC.
• Regulators and central banks having established rules that, while possibly strict (e.g. requiring KYC/AML on crypto transactions, limiting decentralized protocols that can’t ensure compliance), nonetheless allow the industry to operate at scale with oversight.
Themes for 2030–2035: Convergence, Tokenised Credit, SocialFi, L2 Scaling, and IoT Payments
Looking beyond the raw numbers, several qualitative themes are expected to define the crypto landscape of 2030–2035:
• Convergence of DeFi with TradFi: By 2030, the line between decentralized finance and traditional finance may blur. We anticipate a hybrid model where traditional financial institutions interact with DeFi protocols, and vice versa, to create more efficient markets. For example, regulated decentralized exchanges or liquidity pools might be used by banks for interbank lending or FX swaps. TradFi firms are already experimenting with DeFi: in 2023, pilot projects like JPMorgan’s Onyx network used DeFi on permissioned chains for collateral settlements. By 2035, it’s plausible that stock exchanges will employ blockchain for T+0 settlement, or syndicated loans will trade on decentralized platforms. Smart contracts could automate significant parts of back-office finance, reducing settlement times and counterparty risks. This convergence also means DeFi will adopt some of TradFi’s risk management (e.g. insurance, compliance filters), while TradFi adopts some of DeFi’s openness (24/7 operation, composability). The result could be a “CeDeFi” ecosystem marrying the trust of traditional finance with the innovation of crypto .
• Tokenised Credit and On-Chain Debt Markets: One of the next frontiers is bringing credit markets on-chain. By 2030, we expect to see tokenised debt instruments proliferate – from tokenised corporate bonds and government bonds to structured products and loans. McKinsey highlights that bonds and loans are asset classes with relatively high friction today that stand to benefit from tokenisation . Early steps are visible: governments like Singapore have issued tokenised bonds; startups are originating mortgages as NFTs. By 2035, on-chain credit markets could enable, for instance, a small business in Asia to borrow against tokenised invoices or receivables, funded by a global pool of investors via a DeFi lending protocol – all within a regulatory wrapper. We may also see new credit paradigms such as “reputation-based DeFi lending” (using on-chain identity and credit scoring), expanding unsecured lending which is currently nascent in DeFi. Tokenised credit could reduce costs and open access: imagine syndicated loans trading with the liquidity of tokens or trade finance papers (e.g. letters of credit) tokenised and funded via decentralized pools, as the Standard Chartered trade finance paper envisions . By connecting real-world cash flows to on-chain tokens, DeFi could move from primarily crypto-collateralized lending to financing real economy needs (often termed Real World Assets – RWA – in DeFi). Indeed, RWAs have become a major focus in crypto – the idea that bringing trillions of off-chain assets on-chain (in a compliant way) can vastly increase DeFi’s scale . Standard Chartered’s $30 trillion tokenisation estimate by 2034 largely consists of tokenised securities and credit instruments , suggesting on-chain debt and credit will be a core component of the blockchain-based financial system.
• SocialFi and Web3 for Content & Communities: SocialFi refers to the intersection of social media, creator economies, and decentralized finance. By 2030, with the content creation industry projected to exceed $100 billion , decentralized platforms could play a critical role. SocialFi platforms leverage tokens and blockchain to empower creators and users – allowing content creators to monetise directly via tokenized ownership and rewarding communities for engagement. For example, a musician in 2030 might release an album as NFT shards that give holders rights to a share of streaming revenue, or influencers might have personal tokens that fans can stake to earn rewards. This represents a shift from Web2’s model (where a few platforms capture most value) to a Web3 model of community ownership and monetization . Already, there are experiments like decentralized social networks (e.g. Lens Protocol, DeSo) and creator tokens. By 2035, SocialFi could be mainstream: we might see major social networks integrating crypto tokens for tipping, fan engagement, and governance, or entirely new Web3 native social platforms where content creators and audiences share in the platform’s growth via tokens. This also ties into NFTs (non-fungible tokens) evolving beyond art into social capital – tokens that represent membership in communities or fan clubs, tradeable on open markets. Such trends could create new asset classes and drive crypto adoption via entertainment and media rather than purely finance. The ethos is one of decentralised, user-owned networks where economic value flows to participants. Of course, for SocialFi to flourish, user experience must improve – likely seamless integration where users may not even know they are using blockchain under the hood, akin to how one doesn’t think about TCP/IP when using the internet.
• Layer-2 Scaling and Multi-Chain Ecosystem: A critical enabler for all the above is scalability. By 2030, Ethereum and other smart contract platforms are expected to be orders of magnitude more scalable than today, primarily thanks to Layer-2 (L2) networks and advances like sharding. Layer-2 solutions (such as Optimistic and ZK-Rollups on Ethereum) batch transactions off-chain and settle on-chain, dramatically increasing throughput. VanEck’s analysis predicts L2s will capture enormous value – a $1 trillion market cap by 2030 in their base case – because they allow Ethereum to serve billions of users with low fees without sacrificing security. We anticipate by 2030 a rich multi-chain ecosystem, where many L2s and alternative Layer-1 blockchains interoperate. Users might interact with an application without needing to know which chain it’s on; cross-chain bridges or hubs (hopefully more secure than early iterations) will connect liquidity. Zero-knowledge proof (ZKP) technology will be mature, enabling not only scalability (ZK-rollups) but also privacy for transactions and smart contracts – vital for institutional use. Perhaps by 2035, some Layer-2s will specialize (e.g. one for gaming, one for institutional DeFi with compliance features, etc.), all settling to a secure base like Ethereum or a few dominant networks. We may also see modular blockchain architectures flourish: data availability layers, execution layers, consensus layers separable, allowing flexible deployment of new networks. Overall, the user experience is likely to become faster, cheaper, and smoother, fulfilling the promise that blockchain applications can be as seamless as today’s web apps (but with the added benefits of transparency and self-custody). If these scaling solutions succeed, they provide the technical backbone for the trillions in tokenised assets and millions of DeFi users projected – without throughput, the lofty valuations would be moot.
• IoT Payments and Machine-to-Machine (M2M) Economy: Another exciting theme is the convergence of blockchain with the Internet of Things. By 2030, forecasts suggest there could be over 50 billion IoT devices connected globally . Many of these devices – from autonomous vehicles to smart appliances – will need to transact value with each other (paying for services, data, energy, etc.) in an automated fashion. Micropayments via crypto can enable this machine economy. Traditional payment rails are too costly or clunky for tiny, high-frequency payments (fractions of cents, occurring between devices). Blockchain-based micropayments, possibly using lightning networks or IoT-focused cryptos, allow devices to settle transactions autonomously. For instance, an electric car might automatically pay a charging station, or a weather sensor might sell data to a network, in real-time small increments. According to an ECB analysis, micropayments could be crucial to unleashing IoT’s full potential, with one study noting “the IoT market…projected to reach $3.3 trillion by 2030, and micropayments could help drive the machine-to-machine economy.” . Crypto protocols like IOTA, Helium, or Filecoin have in their designs the idea of machine-driven token economies. By 2035, we expect IoT-integrated blockchains to be more prevalent – possibly with certain CBDCs or stablecoins optimized for IoT usage (for example, a “digital euro” that cars use for road tolls automatically). The challenge will be scaling to the volume of transactions IoT generates (billions of txns) and doing so securely. Advances in off-chain channels and probabilistic payment schemes (where not every tiny transaction hits the chain) likely will play a role. If successful, IoT payments might become one of the largest sources of blockchain transaction volume, happening behind the scenes as devices trade resources and services with each other.
In summary, the 2030–2035 period will not just be about bigger numbers, but new paradigms of how blockchain integrates with everyday life: finance blending with social media (SocialFi), machines participating in the economy (IoT payments), and old asset classes like credit, equity, and commodities migrating to digital formats. The overarching theme is convergence – of crypto and traditional tech, of virtual and real economies – leading to a more inclusive and programmable financial system.
Risk Factors and Challenges
Despite the optimistic projections, several risk factors could impede or derail the growth of crypto and tokenised markets. Key challenges include:
• Regulatory Fragmentation and Restrictive Policies: If global regulatory approaches do not harmonize, companies and investors will face a fragmented landscape that stifles adoption. We already see divergence – e.g. the EU’s friendly comprehensive framework vs. harsher stances in some developing economies banning crypto. In a scenario where major jurisdictions impose outright bans or overly burdensome requirements, innovation could migrate to friendlier locales, limiting overall scale. Moreover, lack of standardization in rules (for token issuance, taxation, AML/KYC on DeFi, etc.) can prevent cross-border interoperability. Regulatory clarity is a double-edged sword: clarity can boost adoption, but clarity could also come in the form of strict limitations. For instance, if by 2030 the U.S. were to treat most crypto tokens as securities with no workable compliance path, it could severely limit the market in one of the world’s largest economies. Geopolitical factors also play a role – some countries may promote their CBDCs while discouraging foreign stablecoins (China’s approach to e-CNY vs. tether, for example). Fragmented regulation could thus slow the envisioned 10x growth, or channel it into grey markets. The base-case assumes sufficient regulatory cooperation that these outcomes are avoided.
• Security and Cyber Threats: The crypto sector has been plagued by hacks, exploits, and fraud – risks that will persist and even magnify as the stakes grow. In 2022 alone, hackers stole a record $3.8 billion in cryptocurrency from exchanges and DeFi protocols . High-profile failures due to hacks (e.g. a major stablecoin losing its peg from a smart contract exploit, or a massive DeFi protocol collapse due to a code bug) could erode trust and invite strict regulation. As we project trillions in value on-chain, cybersecurity is paramount – the ecosystem must significantly harden smart contract code, key management, and network infrastructure. New attack vectors, such as quantum computing threats to cryptography or sophisticated protocol-level attacks, may emerge by 2030. A related risk is operational resilience: events like chain outages or consensus failures could cause financial panic if, say, a major payments blockchain went down for hours. The optimistic scenario presumes continuous improvements in audit practices, decentralized security (bug bounties, formal verification), and perhaps insurance or backstop facilities to cover losses. Nonetheless, a string of serious exploits could slow institutional confidence. Cyber risk will likely be an increasingly discussed “systemic risk” if DeFi and crypto become deeply integrated into the core financial system.
• Monetary Sovereignty and FX Leakage: Widespread adoption of stablecoins and crypto raises concerns for governments about currency substitution and capital flight. The IMF has warned of “digital dollarization” whereby citizens in countries with unstable currencies might massively adopt foreign stablecoins (e.g. USD stablecoins), undermining the local currency and monetary policy . A foreign USD-denominated stablecoin can “amplify currency substitution and capital outflows”, weakening central bank control . Emerging markets with capital controls could see those controls circumvented via crypto – indeed, evidence shows stablecoin usage spikes in countries with strict FX controls or inflation, as people seek to protect value. If by 2030 stablecoins are globally accessible and trusted, some nations might face de facto dollarization not through physical cash but through digital tokens circulating in their economy. This represents a risk to financial stability and government financing in those countries (as deposits leave local banks). Regulators may respond with strict limits on stablecoin use, but enforcing such bans is challenging if people can transact peer-to-peer. Another aspect is tax evasion and illicit flows – without global coordination, crypto could be used to move wealth offshore unreported, eroding tax bases. The IMF and G20 are working on frameworks (like travel rule enforcement on crypto transfers, and information sharing agreements) to mitigate these issues. How effective these will be by 2030 remains to be seen. The bear case scenario for crypto might materialize if a significant regulatory backlash occurs due to these sovereignty concerns – e.g. multiple major economies significantly restrict crypto transactions to protect their fiat currencies.
• Financial Market Spillovers: As crypto markets grow, so does their interconnectedness with traditional finance, raising the potential for spillover risks. One example highlighted earlier is the stablecoin–Treasury market nexus. If stablecoins become large holders of short-term government debt, turbulence in crypto (say a sudden redemption wave or loss of confidence in a major stablecoin) could force fire-sales of T-bills, affecting interest rates and liquidity in the broader bond market . In a bull scenario where DeFi holds trillions in tokenised stocks or bonds, a smart contract hack or cascading liquidation event could transmit shocks to underlying real-world asset prices. Another spillover channel is through institutional balance sheets – by 2030, if banks and asset managers have material crypto exposures, a crypto crash could directly impact their financial health (similar to how subprime mortgages, though a relatively small market, caused system-wide issues in 2008 once widely held by leveraged institutions). The Bank of England and BIS have frequently cautioned that as crypto’s size and ties to TradFi grow, it can no longer be dismissed as self-contained – correlations with equities have risen during stress periods, for example. To manage this, regulators are contemplating capital requirements for banks’ crypto holdings and systemic oversight of large stablecoin issuers (treating them a bit like money market funds). By 2035, crypto might be integrated enough that we talk about it in the same breath as other systemically important markets. The risk is that if appropriate safeguards (like circuit breakers on decentralized exchanges, lender-of-last-resort facilities for stablecoins perhaps via central banks) are not in place, a crypto crisis could exacerbate a traditional market selloff.
• User and Environmental Protection: Other risks include reputation and consumer protection issues – scams, excessive speculation, and retail losses could prompt intervention. Environmental concerns around blockchain (especially proof-of-work mining) also loom, though Ethereum’s shift to proof-of-stake and potential innovations in Bitcoin mining (using renewable energy) may mitigate this by 2030. If crypto were perceived as contributing significantly to carbon emissions or e-waste, it could face ESG-driven divestment or legal limits.
In summary, while the base-case outlook for 2030–2035 is positive, these risk factors could slow growth or, in severe cases, trigger a bear scenario. Stakeholders will need to work proactively: developers improving security, regulators coordinating globally, and market participants building in redundancies, to ensure that as crypto’s footprint expands it remains resilient and well-regulated.
Scenario Analysis: Base Case, Bull Case, Bear Case for 2030–2035
To synthesize the various threads, we consider three directional scenarios for the crypto and tokenisation market by around 2030 (with extension into 2035 for longer-term effects):
Figure: 2030 On-Chain Finance scenarios - base vs. bull vs. bear. The chart compares total crypto market cap, DeFi TVL, stablecoin supply, and tokenised RWA value under different scenarios.
• Base Case: The base case envisions global crypto market capitalization of roughly $10–12 trillion by 2030, in line with multiple bank forecasts. In this scenario, crypto grows to be a major asset class (~8–10% of global equity value) but not an all-dominating force. DeFi TVL reaches on the order of $1–2 trillion, reflecting substantial integration of on-chain finance in niches like lending, trading, and asset management (perhaps 10–20% of crypto assets get locked in DeFi for yield or collateral). Stablecoin circulation expands to about $2 trillion (the midpoint of Citi’s base case ), making stablecoins a common medium for e-commerce, remittances, and as settlement collateral in financial markets. CBDCs are launched in many major economies, reaching roughly $5 trillion in aggregate circulation globally – they coexist with stablecoins, sometimes interlinking (e.g. regulated stablecoins holding reserves in CBDC). Tokenised securities and real-world assets in this base scenario grow to $5–7 trillion in value on-chain. This assumes that a significant minority of issuance in private markets and some public markets transitions to blockchain, aided by efficiency gains and regulatory support. For instance, perhaps 5–10% of global bond and loan markets become tokenised by 2030, aligning with McKinsey’s ~$2–4 trillion by 2030 for tokenised assets ex-crypto plus further growth to 2035. Institutional adoption is strong: most banks and asset managers have made crypto/tokenisation a part of their strategy, and regulatory frameworks in G20 countries provide clear rules of the road. While there are periodic setbacks (hacks, market volatility), none are catastrophic enough to reverse the secular trend. This base case essentially mirrors the aggregated projections we’ve cited throughout the paper – it is an extension of current trends with resolved uncertainties. Under these conditions, crypto and traditional finance achieve a level of measured convergence: by 2030, one might see, for example, Apple issuing a tokenised bond, or a major stock exchange running parallel blockchain settlement, but traditional systems still operate in tandem.
• Bull Case: The bull case envisions massive adoption and integration, exceeding most current projections. Here the global crypto market cap could soar to $20–30 trillion+ by 2030, rivaling the market capitalization of all U.S. equities or approaching the scale of the global investment-grade bond market. In this scenario, DeFi truly goes mainstream, potentially exceeding $10 trillion in TVL (as hinted by Messari’s $30T total scenario ), because real-world assets flood on-chain. We would see not only retail and crypto-native assets, but large-scale institutional use of public blockchain networks. For example, if major central banks and exchanges fully embrace blockchain, significant portions of money markets and stock trading might occur via DeFi-like protocols (but with institutional wrappers). Stablecoin usage in this case might top $5 trillion (the high end of optimistic takes, roughly equal to all U.S. M2 growth coming as stablecoins) . This could imply stablecoins as a dominant form of cross-border value transfer, with even corporations using them for treasury (some analyses have posited stablecoin floats in the multi-trillions if global adoption as payment is realized ). Tokenised assets in a bull case could reach well over $20 trillion – recall Standard Chartered’s $30 T by 2034 prediction . That would require not just tokenising a slice of assets, but perhaps a paradigm shift where 10–20% of all financial assets (stocks, bonds, etc.) are on-chain by early 2030s. In this world, the distinction between “crypto market” and “traditional market” might blur – if a tokenised Apple share trades on Uniswap, is it part of crypto market cap or equity market cap or both? It might all just be the market. The bull case likely entails some technological breakthroughs too: perhaps a major new application (analogous to the web browser for the internet) emerges that onboards a billion new crypto users rapidly – this could be a super-app, a VR/metaverse platform, or ubiquitous IoT micropayments. Regulation in this scenario is supportive or at least neutral globally, with major economies fostering innovation (maybe in competition with each other to be fintech hubs). The bull case also assumes that big risks are managed – e.g. no protocol-crushing hack or irrepairable collapse occurs to shake confidence. Under such conditions, by 2035 crypto could be a truly core part of how the world transacts, invests, and communicates (potentially fulfilling the WEF’s early prediction of double-digit percent of GDP on-chain, albeit a few years later than 2027).
• Bear Case: The bear case envisages that many of the risks materialize or that adoption falls short, resulting in a much smaller crypto footprint than optimists predict. Here, global crypto market cap might stay under $5 trillion through 2030, only modestly above its 2021 peak. This could happen if, for instance, stringent regulations or bans in multiple key countries choke off usage (e.g. heavy restrictions on fiat on-ramps and severe penalties for using non-sanctioned networks). Or if a major systemic failure (like a meltdown of a top stablecoin or a critical vulnerability in a leading blockchain) triggers a crisis of confidence. In a bear scenario, DeFi TVL might languish below $500 billion – meaning DeFi remains a fringe activity largely among crypto enthusiasts, with little institutional or real-economy integration. Perhaps traditional finance finds ways to digitize efficiency without public blockchains, or users shy away after some high-profile exploits. Stablecoin growth could be limited to maybe $500 billion (Citi’s bear case ), used mainly within crypto trading but not broadly in commerce due to regulatory clampdowns and the availability of CBDCs as an alternative. CBDC development might also stall in this scenario if political winds shift or projects fail to gain user acceptance, leaving us with only a handful of successful CBDCs and limited cross-border usage. Tokenised assets could end up just a niche (say $1–2 trillion tokenised by 2030, mostly in private market experiments or small jurisdictions). This could be the case if incumbents resist change and if legal systems do not recognize tokenised ownership broadly, keeping most high-value markets on traditional ledgers. The bear case effectively is one where crypto does not break out of its early adopter phase, or gets confined by governments to prevent disruption. Under such a scenario, while crypto might still have cycles of innovation, it would not become a major portion of global finance by 2030 – instead perhaps analogous to the size of the current high-yield bond market or smaller. Long-term, even a bear scenario might delay rather than fully derail adoption (as technology may reassert itself beyond 2035), but it would significantly underwhelm the expectations laid out in this paper.
These scenarios highlight the range of outcomes. The base case aligns with most expert consensus forecasts: crypto around 5–10% of global financial assets by 2030, providing meaningful improvements but coexisting with traditional finance. The bull case pushes the envelope toward a financial revolution where blockchains underlie a large share of economic activity. The bear case reminds us that technology paths are not guaranteed – there have been historical precedents (like nuclear energy in the late 20th century) where great promise plateaued due to social/government factors. Currently, the momentum – investment by major institutions, interest by consumers, and problem-solving by technologists – seems to favor at least the base case outcome, if not somewhere between base and bull. But vigilance is warranted, especially by those with stakes in this future, to address the risk factors and build toward the better outcomes.
Conclusion
By 2030–2035, the landscape of global finance is likely to be palpably changed by cryptoassets and tokenisation, even under conservative assumptions. In a base-case projection, we will see a multi-trillion-dollar crypto ecosystem that constitutes a significant asset class alongside equities and bonds, a thriving market for tokenised real-world assets that enhances liquidity and access in traditional markets, and the normalization of stablecoins and CBDCs as part of everyday payments. Decentralized finance will have matured from an experimental niche into an integrated, if still evolving, component of the financial services industry. Many of the dichotomies we consider today – crypto vs. TradFi, centralized vs. decentralized – may be replaced by hybrid models leveraging the strengths of each. A banking transaction in 2030 might seamlessly use a public blockchain for settlement, and a DeFi transaction might occur under the oversight of regulated institutions.
Yet, the exact trajectory will depend on how the next few years are managed. Stakeholders – innovators, regulators, investors – hold the keys to either realize these projections or fall short. Sensible policy that protects users without smothering innovation, continued technical breakthroughs in scalability and security, and responsible behavior by industry players (to avoid egregious failures) will all be critical. Finance professionals and policy makers should prepare for scenarios, develop frameworks for crypto risk and opportunity, and perhaps most importantly, engage with the technology to help shape its evolution in the public interest. Academic economists will find fertile ground studying this emerging system – from its ability to improve productivity (e.g., cheaper financial intermediation) to its impact on global capital flows and monetary sovereignty.
In conclusion, the 2030–2035 horizon presents both a promising and challenging picture: one of transformational potential, where value moves as freely as information, finance becomes more accessible and programmable, and new forms of economic organization (DAOs, global community tokens, etc.) take root – but also one where prudence is needed to navigate risks of disruption. If the base-case projections hold, by 2035 we will look back on the 2020s as the period when blockchain technology moved from the periphery of finance to its core, ushering in an era in which 8–10% of global market value on-chain was only the beginning of a broader financial evolution . The next decade will test whether crypto can fulfill that destiny in a stable and inclusive way. As with any technological revolution, it will not be a smooth straight line upwards, but the direction of travel appears set: toward a tokenised, decentralized, and digitally native financial world by 2030–2035.
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Sources: Citigroup ; Standard Chartered ; McKinsey ; World Economic Forum ; VanEck ; PwC ; Reuters (BIS survey) ; Business Insider (BofA) ; IMF ; Binance Research ; Chainalysis/Reuters ; Gemini ; others as cited above.